Before winter started, the models said Syracuse would get a break. Seasonal forecasts called for below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures for the 2025-2026 winter. The city, which averages 127.8 inches of snow per season, was supposed to catch a lighter year.
The sky had other plans. As of March 20, Syracuse Hancock International Airport has recorded 141.2 inches of snow — a departure of 20.8 inches above normal and climbing. By late February, the city was already at 130.4 inches, leading the entire Great Lakes region. Rochester trailed at 105.4 inches. Buffalo, despite its reputation, managed just 85.8 inches.
What happened? Forecasters point to a La Niña winter pattern combined with a negative Quasi-Biennial Oscillation — atmospheric conditions that created a higher likelihood of Polar Vortex disruption. The result was persistent northwest flow events off Lakes Erie and Ontario that parked heavy snow bands over the Syracuse corridor through January and February, the kind of relentless lake-effect machinery that makes Central New York one of the snowiest metropolitan areas in the country.
The snow came in waves. January and February delivered the bulk of the season’s accumulation, with repeated multi-day events that kept plows running around the clock. March, by contrast, has been relatively quiet — just 7.7 inches through the 20th, well below the monthly normal of 15.5 inches. The late-season reprieve has been welcome but does not change the math: this was a big snow year by any measure.
Syracuse’s snow records stretch back to 1902 at Hancock International Airport, giving meteorologists 124 years of data. The all-time seasonal record is 192.1 inches, set in 1992-93. This season will not approach that, but it comfortably outpaces the 30-year average and lands in the upper tier of recorded winters.
The National Weather Service’s Binghamton office, which covers the Syracuse area, tracks the data in granular detail. Their climate plots show a season that started modestly in November, ramped up sharply through the holidays, and then delivered punishing totals in the new year. The CNYWeather.com snowfall summary, maintained by local weather enthusiasts, provides day-by-day breakdowns that confirm the pattern: this was not one or two blockbuster storms but a steady, grinding accumulation.
For Syracuse residents, 141 inches of snow is not a crisis — it is a Tuesday. The city’s snow removal infrastructure is built for exactly this kind of season. But it is a useful reminder that seasonal forecasts, however sophisticated the models have become, still struggle with lake-effect snow. The lakes do what they want.
With a few weeks of potential accumulation still ahead before the seasonal count closes on June 30, this winter has already earned its place as one of the heavier ones in recent memory. Syracuse, as usual, handles it without much fuss.
