CNY heating costs 2026-27: National Grid gas supply 5% under last September, HEAP limits posted

National Grid’s residential natural gas supply price for September 2026 is 27.3 cents per therm, 5 percent below September 2025, according to the utility’s Upstate New York supply cost table. Last winter that same price peaked at 66.3 cents per therm in February 2026, 44 percent above February 2025.

Supply is the part of the bill that moves with the market each month. Delivery is the part the state Public Service Commission sets, and it already went up April 1, 2026. Neither National Grid nor the PSC had published a 2026-27 winter bill forecast as of September 26, 2026, so this story sticks to what is filed and posted.

What National Grid’s gas supply price did last winter

National Grid posts a total effective monthly cost of gas for its SC1 residential class. Cents per therm, November through March:

CNY Signal calculated the changes and averages from that table. The five-month average was 53.4 cents in 2025-26 against 40.7 cents in 2024-25, up 31 percent. At 78 therms, the average National Grid cites for its residential gas customers, February’s supply charge was $51.71 in 2026 versus $35.98 in 2025, $15.73 more for the same gas. October’s price was not posted as of September 26. National Grid’s electric supply charge “varies by month and Load Zone” and, the company says, is “not a forecast.”

The delivery side: what the PSC approved and when it steps up

The PSC approved National Grid’s three-year upstate plan on August 14, 2025 (Cases 24-E-0322 and 24-G-0323), cutting the company’s first-year ask by 67 percent on electric and 63 percent on gas. New rates took effect September 1, 2025.

National Grid’s August 14, 2025 estimates: a residential electric customer using 625 kWh a month pays $14.32 more in year one, $6.44 more in year two and $4.34 more in year three; a gas customer using 78 therms pays $7.66, $8.08 and $9.18 more. Added up (CNY Signal’s arithmetic): $25.10 a month for electric and $24.92 for gas by year three, about $50 combined.

Its residential rate page lists year-two prices effective April 1, 2026: $19.00 a month plus 10.013 cents per kWh for electric delivery, and $23.75 a month for the first three therms of gas, then 94.5 cents per therm for the next 47 and 22.527 cents above 50.

Who has NYSEG in Central New York, and what is pending there

The Department of Public Service’s county table (October 2022) lists both National Grid and NYSEG for electric and gas in Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties. NYSEG is the only gas utility in Cayuga County and serves all of Tompkins; Cortland County has NYSEG and Corning Natural Gas; Oswego County is National Grid for both.

NYSEG asked the PSC (Cases 25-E-0375 and 25-G-0378) for $464.4 million more a year in electric revenue and $93.0 million in gas, which the state puts at $33.12 a month more for a 600 kWh residential customer and $33.57 more for an 83 therm heating customer, for a rate year ending April 30, 2027. On May 14, 2026 the Commission set temporary rates from June 1 with residential bill impacts of 0.2 percent for electric and 1.7 percent for gas, and said final rates “are expected to be decided by the Commission in the coming months.” Both cases were still listed as pending on September 26, 2026.

HEAP 2026-27: what is posted and what is not

The state Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance has posted 2026-2027 HEAP monthly income limits:

Also posted for 2026-27: the Heating Equipment Repair and Replacement benefit opens October 1, 2026 (up to $4,000 for a repair, $8,000 for a replacement, homeowners only), and Clean and Tune opens the same day (up to $500).

Not posted as of September 26: the 2026-27 Regular HEAP opening date and benefit amounts. Last season, for reference: OTDA postponed the Regular opening twice (messages of October 21 and October 31, 2025) before a November 28 message set the date, and Onondaga County’s Office for Aging page says applications became available December 1. Regular HEAP closed April 10, 2026; Emergency HEAP ran January 2 to April 24, 2026. Last season’s base Regular benefit was $400 plus add-ons for gas or electric heat paid directly, $900 for oil, kerosene or propane and $635 for wood, pellets, coal or corn.

How to apply for HEAP in Onondaga County

– Regular HEAP: online at myBenefits.ny.gov, or in person at 421 Montgomery St., 2nd floor, Syracuse, NY 13202, Monday through Friday 8 am to 4 pm.
– Emergency, repair and cooling benefits: by phone or in person only. The county DSS HEAP page lists (315) 435-2700; the Office for Aging page lists the DSS Economic Security HEAP unit at (315) 435-8295.
– Age 60 and older, or under 60 and disabled with Code A SSI: Office for Aging HEAP Unit, 421 Montgomery Street, (315) 435-2362, Monday through Friday 8:30 am to 4:30 pm.
– After-hours heating emergency: 211 or 1-844-245-1922. OTDA hotline: 1-800-342-3009.

Heating oil and propane: market prices, not regulated rates

These prices are market-based, not regulated. NYSERDA’s Central Region average (Onondaga, Cayuga, Cortland, Madison, Oneida and Oswego counties among them) went from $3.49 a gallon in September 2025 to $5.14 in March 2026 and was $5.19 in August 2026, 49 percent above August 2025. EIA’s weekly New York residential price ended the season at $5.874 a gallon the week of March 30, 2026; propane ended at $3.747. Both weekly series resume October 7, 2026.

The winter outlook that exists

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in its September 17, 2026 seasonal discussion, gives a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Nino this fall and winter. For December through February it favors above-normal temperatures “over northern and central portions of the country east of the Rockies,” with the highest chances, 50 to 60 percent, “along much of the northern tier of states,” and a wet signal “extending northward along the Atlantic coast into New England.” Those are probabilities, not a bill forecast.

What’s next, with dates

– October 1, 2026: HEAP furnace repair and Clean and Tune benefits open.
– October 7, 2026: EIA weekly heating oil and propane prices resume.
– Last year’s PSC winter session was October 16, 2025; it forecast a $1,121 statewide winter gas bill, 8 percent above 2024-25’s $1,040 actual.
– Not yet dated: National Grid’s October supply price, the NYSEG final order, and the 2026-27 Regular HEAP opening.