Lake Effect Snow Syracuse - Live Band Tracker & Records

By Jen Okafor, Senior Reporter. Published 2026-05-06. Last updated 2026-05-06.

Lake-effect snow forms when arctic air at 850 hPa crosses Lake Ontario at temperatures at least 13 C colder than the lake surface, producing intense convective bands that can deliver 3 to 6 inches of snow per hour. Syracuse sits in the Lake Ontario lake-effect path with a 169 mile fetch from the Hamilton, Ontario shore, and the city averages 123.8 inches of annual snow per NOAA 1991 to 2020 normals, the most of any major US city. Lake-effect season runs roughly November through February, with peak intensity in December and January.

What is Lake Effect Snow

Lake-effect snow is a localized snowfall phenomenon caused by cold air crossing a warmer
unfrozen body of water. The cold air absorbs heat and water vapor from the lake, becomes
unstable, rises, and condenses into deep convective snow clouds on the lee shore. Per the
American Meteorological Society glossary, the official threshold for lake-effect snow
formation is a temperature differential of approximately 13 C (23 F) between the 850 hPa
(roughly 5,000 feet above ground) air temperature and the lake surface temperature. When the
threshold is met and wind direction aligns the fetch over open water, the resulting snow
band can deliver intense localized snowfall.

Why Syracuse Gets Hit

Three geographic factors combine to make Syracuse a lake-effect target: 1) Lake Ontario
to the northwest, with a 169-mile fetch from Hamilton, Ontario to Oswego, New York,
sufficient for deep convective cloud development; 2) prevailing winter winds at 270 degrees
(westerly) that align the lake-effect band toward the Tug Hill Plateau and Syracuse;
3) the Tug Hill Plateau immediately east of Syracuse, which forces the air mass to rise
and dump additional snow on the windward slopes. The Syracuse metro lies within the
“primary plume” zone of Lake Ontario lake effect, second in intensity only to the Tug Hill
itself.

The Mechanics of a Lake-Effect Band

A typical Lake Ontario lake-effect band is 5 to 10 miles wide, 100 to 200 miles long, and
travels at the wind speed of the prevailing flow (typically 20 to 35 mph). Snowfall rates
within the band can exceed 6 inches per hour at the most intense locations, while areas
just 10 miles outside the band may receive zero precipitation. The bands are extremely
localized: it is common for 30 inches of snow to fall in Liverpool while downtown Syracuse
sees 4 inches in the same 24 hour period. NWS Buffalo forecasters use NEXRAD radar (KBUF
and KTYX) plus high-resolution lake-effect forecast models to predict band placement, but
forecast skill on band location degrades sharply beyond 12 hours.

Syracuse Lake-Effect Records

Per NWS Buffalo records: largest single-storm lake-effect snowfall at Syracuse Hancock
International Airport (KSYR) was 65.5 inches in December 1995. Largest single-day was 35.6
inches on January 15, 1966. Largest seasonal total was 192.1 inches in 1992 to 1993.
Largest monthly total was 84.4 inches in December 2010. The Tug Hill Plateau, immediately
east of Syracuse and slightly north, has unofficially recorded over 466 inches in a single
season at Redfield, the all-time New York State seasonal record.

The Snowvember 2014 Event

The November 17 to 22, 2014 lake-effect event, locally known as “Snowvember,”
delivered 86 inches across the Syracuse metro in 72 hours, killed 14 people in southtowns
of Buffalo, and triggered the longest National Guard activation for a snow event in New York
state history. The Buffalo metro south of the Thruway was the worst-hit, but Syracuse
recorded 53 inches at KSYR over the event. Per the NWS Buffalo post-event service
assessment, the band was unusually narrow (5 to 7 miles wide) but persisted for 36 hours
over the same location due to a near-stationary upper-level pattern.

Lake Ontario Sea Surface Temperature in Winter

Per NOAA Coastwatch Great Lakes data, Lake Ontario surface temperature in early November
typically averages 50 F (10 C). By early December it cools to 42 F (5.5 C). By early
January it is 38 F (3.3 C), and by early February the near-shore shallows have ice cover
while the open lake is around 35 F (1.7 C). Lake-effect snow begins in earnest in
mid-November when the air aloft is cold enough to meet the 13 C differential, peaks in
December and January, and tapers off in February to March as the lake gets colder, the
fetch shortens with shoreline ice, and the air mass cools less rapidly during transit.

How Climate Change is Affecting CNY Lake-Effect

Per a 2023 study by the SUNY Oswego Lake-Effect Research Group at
SUNY Oswego meteorology, total Lake
Ontario lake-effect snowfall has declined approximately 8 percent over the 1979 to 2020
period, primarily because warmer winters delay the start of the season and reduce the
number of days meeting the 13 C differential. However, the intensity of individual events
has increased: when conditions are right, the open water remains unfrozen later in the
winter, allowing for more intense bands. The net result is fewer total lake-effect days
per year but more high-impact events.

Lake-Effect Watches, Advisories, and Warnings

NWS issues four levels of lake-effect snow product: Lake Effect Snow Watch (potential),
Lake Effect Snow Advisory (4 to 7 inches expected over a 12-hour period), Lake Effect
Snow Warning (greater than 7 inches expected over a 12-hour period or rates greater than
2 inches per hour for 4+ hours), and Blizzard Warning (sustained 35+ mph winds plus heavy
snow plus visibility under 0.25 miles for 3+ hours). The Onondaga County emergency manager
typically activates the county Emergency Operations Center for any Lake Effect Snow Warning
forecast at 12+ inches.

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