Rooftop solar in Onondaga County: median cost hit $3.37 a watt in 2025, up from $2.96 in 2019

The median home solar system completed in Onondaga County in 2025 cost $3.37 per watt of capacity before incentives, up from $2.96 per watt in 2019, according to CNY Signal’s analysis of the state’s project-level solar file, refreshed September 4, 2026. That is a 14 percent rise in the reported installed price over six years. General inflation ran 26 percent over the same years, so in real terms the price fell about 10 percent.

Why it matters: anyone pricing panels in Syracuse this fall is shopping in a market where the sticker price has risen, the federal credit that covered 30 percent of the cost expired for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025, and the state credit is capped at $5,000.

What does a typical Onondaga County home system cost?

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) publishes every solar project that received a state incentive since 2000. For the 1,607 completed residential projects in Onondaga County, the medians are:

“Project cost” in the state file is the “expected project installation cost in US dollars (USD), as reported by the solar project contractor,” per NYSERDA’s data dictionary. It is the price before the NYSERDA incentive and before any tax credit, not what the homeowner paid out of pocket. Comparing the two medians, the incentive covers about 13 percent of a typical project’s reported cost.

Solar panel cost in Syracuse, by year

Median reported cost per watt DC, completed residential projects, by the year NYSERDA closed out the project:

The price held between $2.93 and $3.01 for four years, then jumped 12 percent in one year, from $2.98 in 2022 to $3.33 in 2023. It peaked at $3.50 in 2024, eased to $3.37 in 2025 and is running at $3.48 so far in 2026. On a median-sized 8.5 kilowatt system, the 2019 rate works out to $25,160 and the 2025 rate to $28,645, a $3,485 difference. (Medians multiplied, not an actual project.)

The increase is smaller than inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index averaged 255.657 in 2019 and 321.943 in 2025, up 25.9 percent. At that rate, 2019’s $2.96 per watt would be $3.73 in 2025 dollars, and 2025’s actual median of $3.37 is about 10 percent below it.

That matches the national pattern in Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s Tracking the Sun report, 2024 edition, published August 2024 with data through 2023: from 2021 to 2023 “nominal installed prices rose by $0.2-0.3/W” while “real, inflation-adjusted prices fell by roughly $0.5/W for residential systems.” The lab cautions that reported prices for loan-financed systems “likely include dealer fees”; NYSERDA’s file does not say whether contractor-reported costs include financing fees.

Which towns have the most solar?

These 12 municipalities hold 1,510 of the county’s 1,824 completed projects, 83 percent. The Town of Clay has 44 more systems than the City of Syracuse. CNY Signal is reporting at the municipality level and is not publishing any project address or owner.

How many systems went in each year?

2025 was the busiest year since 2019 (147 against 141), 24 percent above 2024 and nearly double the 2020 low of 76. The other 793 completed projects date from 2000 through 2016. The 2026 count covers only projects closed out by September 4 and cannot be compared with a full year.

The county’s 2025 peak ran against the national trend. The Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie reported on March 9, 2026 that U.S. residential installations fell 2 percent in 2025, to 4,647 megawatts, and that “the year-end expiration of the Section 25D tax credit for customer-owned solar caused a surge in sales and permitting activity” that equipment shortages and limited time then held back. The file does not say why any Onondaga project was built, and CNY Signal is not attributing the local increase to the credit’s expiration.

What are the tax credits worth now?

Two credits sit on top of the NYSERDA incentive, and one is gone for new systems.

– Federal Residential Clean Energy Credit: 30 percent of the cost of qualified property, no dollar cap for solar, claimed on IRS Form 5695. The IRS says the credit “is not available for any property placed in service after December 31, 2025.” On the median $30,562 project that was $9,169, but only for systems in service by the end of 2025.
– New York State solar energy system equipment credit: “equal to 25% of your qualified solar energy system equipment expenditures and is limited to $5,000,” per the state Tax Department, claimed on Form IT-255. It covers purchased and leased systems and power purchase agreements of at least ten years at a principal residence in New York. On the median project, 25 percent is $7,641, so the $5,000 cap applies.

CNY Signal is not giving tax advice. Which costs qualify is a question for the IRS and state instructions or a tax professional.

The county total

Onondaga County’s 1,824 completed projects add up to 243,629 kilowatts DC, about 244 megawatts, with an expected 311.6 million kilowatt-hours a year. NYSERDA has paid $76,454,793 in incentives on them. Residential projects are 1,607 of the 1,824 (88 percent). Of projects listing a utility, 1,660 are in National Grid territory and 156 in NYSEG territory.

CNY Signal computed every county figure in this story from the Onondaga County rows of NYSERDA’s “Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA: Beginning 2000” dataset and adjusted for inflation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI-U annual averages.